This notebook contains a set of analyses for analyzing Phil’s boardgamegeek collection. The bulk of the analysis is focused on building a user-specific predictive model to predict the games that the specified user is likely to own. This enables us to ask questions like, based on the games the user currently owns, what games are a good fit for their collection? What upcoming games are they likely to purchase?
We can look at a basic description of the number of games that the user owns, has rated, has previously owned, etc.
What years has the user owned/rated games from? While we can’t see when a user added or removed a game from their collection, we can look at their collection by the years in which their games were published.
We can look at the most frequent types of categories, mechanics, designers, and artists that appear in a user’s collection.
We’ll examine predictive models trained on a user’s collection for games published through 2020. How many games has the user owned/rated/played in the training set (games prior to 2020)?
username | dataset | period | games_owned | games_rated |
Phil | training | published before 2020 | 121 | 128 |
Phil | validation | published 2020 | 20 | 12 |
Phil | test | published after 2020 | 5 | 0 |
The main outcome we will be modeling for the user is owned, which refers to whether the user currently owns or has a previously owned a game in their collection. Our goal is to train a predictive model to learn the probability that a user will add a game to their collection based on its observable features. This amounts to looking at historical data and looking to find patterns that exist between features of games and games present in the user’s collection.
One of the models we trained was a decision tree, which looks for decision rules that can be used to separate games the user owns from games they don’t. The resulting model produces a decision corresponding to yes or no statements: to explain why the model predicts the user to own game, we start at the top of the tree and follow the rules that were learned from the training data.
Note: the tree below has been further pruned to make it easier to visualize.
Decision trees are highly interpretible models that are easy to train and can identify important interactions and nonlinearities present in the data. Individual trees have the drawback of being less predictive than other common models, but it can be useful to look at them to gain some understanding of key predictors and relationships found in the training data.
We can examine coefficients from another model we trained, which is a logistic regression with elastic net regularization (which I will refer to as a penalized logistic regression). Positive values indicate that a feature increases a user’s probability of owning/rating a game, while negative values indicate a feature decreases the probability. To be precise, the coefficients indicate the effect of a particular feature on the log-odds of a user owning a game.
Why did the model identify these features? We can make density plots of the important features for predicting whether the user owned a game. Blue indicates the density for games owned by the user, while grey indicates the density for games not owned by the user.
Binary predictors can be difficult to see with this visualization, so we can also directly examine the percentage of games in a user’s collection with a predictor vs the percentage of all games with that predictor.
% of Games with Feature | ||||
username | Feature | User_Collection | All_Games | Ratio |
Phil | Capstone Games | 4.1% | 0.1% | 37.10 |
Phil | Space Cowboys | 5.0% | 0.2% | 27.98 |
Phil | Fantasy Flight Games | 19.8% | 1.1% | 18.48 |
Phil | Asmodee | 32.2% | 2.5% | 13.02 |
Phil | CMON Global Limited | 4.1% | 0.4% | 11.66 |
Phil | Variable Setup | 15.7% | 1.4% | 11.40 |
Phil | Renegade Game Studios | 3.3% | 0.4% | 8.37 |
Phil | ZMan Games | 11.6% | 1.4% | 8.31 |
Phil | Map Continental National Scale | 14.9% | 1.9% | 7.92 |
Phil | Race | 7.4% | 1.0% | 7.65 |
Phil | Artist Klemens Franz | 4.1% | 0.6% | 6.92 |
Phil | Pegasus Spiele | 13.2% | 2.2% | 6.12 |
Phil | Solo Solitaire Game | 19.0% | 3.2% | 5.88 |
Phil | Murder Mystery | 7.4% | 1.5% | 5.05 |
Phil | Deduction Game | 14.9% | 5.0% | 2.95 |
Phil | Movement Points | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.06 |
Before predicting games in upcoming years, we can examine how well the model did and what games it liked in the training set. In this case, we used resampling techniques (cross validation) to ensure that the model had not seen a game before making its predictions.
Displaying the 100 games from the training set with the highest probability of ownership, highlighting in blue games the user has owned.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
1 | 2017 | 233078 | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | 0.871 | yes |
2 | 2016 | 205637 | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | 0.818 | yes |
3 | 2013 | 143693 | Glass Road | 0.816 | no |
4 | 2018 | 205896 | Rising Sun | 0.764 | no |
5 | 2019 | 276025 | Maracaibo | 0.714 | yes |
6 | 2016 | 187645 | Star Wars: Rebellion | 0.691 | no |
7 | 2017 | 174430 | Gloomhaven | 0.679 | yes |
8 | 2011 | 96848 | Mage Knight Board Game | 0.673 | no |
9 | 2004 | 9609 | War of the Ring | 0.584 | no |
10 | 2000 | 478 | Citadels | 0.574 | no |
11 | 2010 | 25292 | Merchants & Marauders | 0.501 | yes |
12 | 2014 | 164928 | Orléans | 0.477 | no |
13 | 2017 | 221107 | Pandemic Legacy: Season 2 | 0.474 | no |
14 | 2012 | 104162 | Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition) | 0.429 | no |
15 | 2017 | 220308 | Gaia Project | 0.421 | no |
16 | 2016 | 176083 | Hit Z Road | 0.411 | no |
17 | 2019 | 281946 | Aftermath | 0.387 | no |
18 | 2011 | 103343 | A Game of Thrones: The Board Game (Second Edition) | 0.387 | no |
19 | 2012 | 120677 | Terra Mystica | 0.381 | yes |
20 | 2016 | 205059 | Mansions of Madness: Second Edition | 0.380 | yes |
21 | 2015 | 181530 | Runebound (Third Edition) | 0.379 | no |
22 | 2019 | 269385 | The Lord of the Rings: Journeys in Middle-Earth | 0.366 | yes |
23 | 2016 | 167791 | Terraforming Mars | 0.354 | no |
24 | 2015 | 175878 | 504 | 0.348 | no |
25 | 1997 | 42 | Tigris & Euphrates | 0.336 | no |
26 | 2017 | 232918 | Fallout | 0.333 | no |
27 | 2019 | 266507 | Clank!: Legacy – Acquisitions Incorporated | 0.332 | no |
28 | 2015 | 146508 | T.I.M.E Stories | 0.328 | no |
29 | 2014 | 157403 | Black Fleet | 0.328 | no |
30 | 2019 | 271896 | Star Wars: Outer Rim | 0.325 | no |
31 | 2019 | 270971 | Era: Medieval Age | 0.312 | no |
32 | 2008 | 37111 | Battlestar Galactica: The Board Game | 0.311 | no |
33 | 2011 | 70919 | Takenoko | 0.307 | no |
34 | 2017 | 184151 | Legend of the Five Rings: The Card Game | 0.295 | no |
35 | 2018 | 260428 | Pandemic: Fall of Rome | 0.295 | yes |
36 | 2009 | 54043 | Jaipur | 0.294 | no |
37 | 2013 | 127024 | Room 25 | 0.293 | no |
38 | 2012 | 121921 | Robinson Crusoe: Adventures on the Cursed Island | 0.288 | no |
39 | 2011 | 59959 | Letters from Whitechapel | 0.279 | yes |
40 | 2018 | 257499 | Arkham Horror (Third Edition) | 0.278 | no |
41 | 2012 | 124742 | Android: Netrunner | 0.276 | no |
42 | 2010 | 73439 | Troyes | 0.272 | yes |
43 | 2004 | 9440 | Maharaja: The Game of Palace Building in India | 0.272 | no |
44 | 2009 | 39683 | At the Gates of Loyang | 0.267 | no |
45 | 2018 | 254591 | Heroes of Terrinoth | 0.266 | no |
46 | 2015 | 163968 | Elysium | 0.266 | no |
47 | 2017 | 230802 | Azul | 0.265 | yes |
48 | 2019 | 285774 | Marvel Champions: The Card Game | 0.260 | yes |
49 | 2010 | 62219 | Dominant Species | 0.259 | no |
50 | 2011 | 83330 | Mansions of Madness | 0.255 | no |
51 | 2005 | 18723 | Aye, Dark Overlord! The Red Box | 0.251 | no |
52 | 2017 | 234671 | Pandemic: Rising Tide | 0.245 | no |
53 | 2006 | 14808 | Marvel Heroes | 0.241 | no |
54 | 2016 | 169786 | Scythe | 0.239 | no |
55 | 2004 | 10547 | Betrayal at House on the Hill | 0.235 | no |
56 | 2017 | 238065 | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Vanishing from Hyde Park | 0.233 | no |
57 | 2017 | 188920 | This War of Mine: The Board Game | 0.233 | no |
58 | 2005 | 12493 | Twilight Imperium: Third Edition | 0.231 | yes |
59 | 2015 | 170216 | Blood Rage | 0.225 | no |
60 | 2012 | 123096 | Space Cadets | 0.224 | yes |
61 | 2008 | 38453 | Space Alert | 0.221 | no |
62 | 2018 | 256226 | Azul: Stained Glass of Sintra | 0.214 | no |
63 | 2014 | 148228 | Splendor | 0.206 | no |
64 | 2015 | 182694 | Watson & Holmes | 0.197 | yes |
65 | 2012 | 104710 | Wiz-War (Eighth Edition) | 0.197 | no |
66 | 2017 | 221805 | Breaking Bad: The Board Game | 0.188 | no |
67 | 2016 | 205716 | New Angeles | 0.186 | no |
68 | 2019 | 285984 | Last Bastion | 0.183 | no |
69 | 2018 | 252328 | Star Wars: X-Wing (Second Edition) | 0.182 | yes |
70 | 2010 | 73171 | Earth Reborn | 0.180 | no |
71 | 2009 | 40692 | Small World | 0.179 | no |
72 | 2007 | 31481 | Galaxy Trucker | 0.179 | yes |
73 | 2005 | 15987 | Arkham Horror | 0.179 | no |
74 | 2018 | 313010 | Cosmic Encounter: 42nd Anniversary Edition | 0.178 | no |
75 | 2014 | 152241 | Ultimate Werewolf | 0.174 | no |
76 | 2016 | 156858 | Black Orchestra | 0.173 | no |
77 | 2016 | 192945 | Coal Baron: The Great Card Game | 0.173 | no |
78 | 2014 | 164153 | Star Wars: Imperial Assault | 0.173 | yes |
79 | 2018 | 244711 | Newton | 0.170 | no |
80 | 2015 | 181304 | Mysterium | 0.167 | no |
81 | 2018 | 257707 | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – In Pursuit of Cabrakan | 0.167 | no |
82 | 2003 | 6472 | A Game of Thrones | 0.166 | no |
83 | 2016 | 171131 | Captain Sonar | 0.165 | no |
84 | 2008 | 30549 | Pandemic | 0.165 | no |
85 | 2017 | 190082 | Whitehall Mystery | 0.164 | yes |
86 | 2019 | 286096 | Tapestry | 0.164 | no |
87 | 1995 | 112 | Condottiere | 0.161 | no |
88 | 2008 | 38054 | Snow Tails | 0.157 | no |
89 | 1998 | 3 | Samurai | 0.155 | no |
90 | 2008 | 33107 | Senji | 0.151 | no |
91 | 2018 | 233020 | Fireball Island: The Curse of Vul-Kar | 0.151 | no |
92 | 2008 | 37794 | Magnifico | 0.150 | no |
93 | 2016 | 204837 | Game of Thrones: The Iron Throne | 0.150 | no |
94 | 2013 | 143515 | Coal Baron | 0.148 | no |
95 | 2019 | 284818 | Caylus 1303 | 0.148 | no |
96 | 2017 | 224316 | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – The Elite | 0.147 | no |
97 | 2017 | 229598 | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – Doo-Arann Dungeon | 0.147 | no |
98 | 2012 | 119391 | Il Vecchio | 0.146 | no |
99 | 2015 | 181279 | Fury of Dracula (Third/Fourth Edition) | 0.144 | yes |
100 | 2005 | 20963 | Fury of Dracula (Second Edition) | 0.144 | no |
This section contains a variety of visualizations and metrics for assessing the performance of the model(s) during resampling. If you’re not particularly interested in predictive modeling, skip down further to the predictions from the model.
An easy way to examine the performance of classification model is to view a separation plot. We plot the predicted probabilities from the model for every game (from resampling) from lowest to highest. We then overlay a blue line for any game that the user does own. A good classifier is one that is able to separate the blue (games owned by the user) from the white (games not owned by the user), with most of the blue occurring at the highest probabilities (right side of the chart).
We can more formally assess how well each model did in resampling by looking at the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. A perfect model would receive a score of 1, while a model that cannot predict the outcome will default to a score of 0.5. The extent to which something is a good score depends on the setting, but generally anything in the .8 to .9 range is very good while the .7 to .8 range is perfectly acceptable.
wflow_id | .metric | .estimator | .estimate |
GLM | roc_auc | binary | 0.93 |
Decision Tree | roc_auc | binary | 0.79 |
Another way to think about the model performance is to view its lift, or its ability to detect the positive outcomes over that of a null model. High lift indicates the model can much more quickly find all of the positive outcomes (in this case, games owned or played by the user), while a model with no lift is no better than random guessing. A gains chart is another way to view this.
While we are probably more interested in the lift provided by the models to evaluate their efficacy, we can also explore the optimal cutpoint if we wanted to define a hard threshold for identifying games a user will own vs not own.
The threshold we select depends on how we much we care about false positives (games the model predicts that the user does not own) vs false negatives (games the user owns that the model does not predict). We can toggle threshold to
Finally, we can understand the performance of the model by examining its calibration. If the model assigns a probability of 5%, how often does the outcome actually occur? A well calibrated model is one in which the predicted probabilities reflect the probabilities we would observe in the actual data. We can assess the calibration of a model by grouping its predictions into bins and assessing how often we observe the outcome versus how often our model expects to observe the outcome.
A model that is well calibrated will closely follow the dashed line - its expected probabilities match that of the observed probabilities. A model that consistently underestimates the probability of the event will be over this dashed line, be a while a model that overestimates the probability will be under the dashed line.
What games does the model think Phil is most likely to own that are not in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2013 | 143693 | Glass Road | 0.816 | no |
2018 | 205896 | Rising Sun | 0.764 | no |
2016 | 187645 | Star Wars: Rebellion | 0.691 | no |
2011 | 96848 | Mage Knight Board Game | 0.673 | no |
2004 | 9609 | War of the Ring | 0.584 | no |
What games does the model think Phil is least likely to own that are in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2016 | 203417 | Exit: The Game – The Secret Lab | 0.002 | yes |
1876 | 521 | Crokinole | 0.002 | yes |
2019 | 247367 | Air, Land, and Sea | 0.002 | yes |
2004 | 11971 | Cockroach Poker | 0.002 | yes |
2018 | 236457 | Architects of the West Kingdom | 0.003 | yes |
Top 25 games most likely to be owned by the user in each year, highlighting in blue the games that the user has owned.
rank | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
1 | Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition) | Glass Road | Orléans | Runebound (Third Edition) | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | Rising Sun | Maracaibo |
2 | Terra Mystica | Room 25 | Black Fleet | 504 | Star Wars: Rebellion | Gloomhaven | Pandemic: Fall of Rome | Aftermath |
3 | Robinson Crusoe: Adventures on the Cursed Island | Coal Baron | Splendor | T.I.M.E Stories | Hit Z Road | Pandemic Legacy: Season 2 | Arkham Horror (Third Edition) | The Lord of the Rings: Journeys in Middle-Earth |
4 | Android: Netrunner | Lewis & Clark: The Expedition | Ultimate Werewolf | Elysium | Mansions of Madness: Second Edition | Gaia Project | Heroes of Terrinoth | Clank!: Legacy – Acquisitions Incorporated |
5 | Space Cadets | Bruxelles 1893 | Star Wars: Imperial Assault | Blood Rage | Terraforming Mars | Fallout | Azul: Stained Glass of Sintra | Star Wars: Outer Rim |
6 | Wiz-War (Eighth Edition) | Eldritch Horror | Akrotiri | Watson & Holmes | Scythe | Legend of the Five Rings: The Card Game | Star Wars: X-Wing (Second Edition) | Era: Medieval Age |
7 | Il Vecchio | Tash-Kalar: Arena of Legends | Three Kingdoms Redux | Mysterium | New Angeles | Azul | Cosmic Encounter: 42nd Anniversary Edition | Marvel Champions: The Card Game |
8 | Archipelago | Wildcatters | DungeonQuest Revised Edition | Fury of Dracula (Third/Fourth Edition) | Black Orchestra | Pandemic: Rising Tide | Newton | Last Bastion |
9 | Zombicide | BANG! The Dice Game | Fields of Arle | Forbidden Stars | Coal Baron: The Great Card Game | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Vanishing from Hyde Park | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – In Pursuit of Cabrakan | Tapestry |
10 | Star Wars: X-Wing Miniatures Game | Warhammer: Diskwars | Arcadia Quest | Mombasa | Captain Sonar | This War of Mine: The Board Game | Fireball Island: The Curse of Vul-Kar | Caylus 1303 |
11 | Rex: Final Days of an Empire | BattleLore: Second Edition | Patchwork | Haspelknecht: The Story of Early Coal Mining | Game of Thrones: The Iron Throne | Breaking Bad: The Board Game | Shadows: Amsterdam | Hellenica: Story of Greece |
12 | Love Letter | Impulse | AquaSphere | Risk: Europe | Citadels | Whitehall Mystery | The World of SMOG: Rise of Moloch | Azul: Summer Pavilion |
13 | Kemet | Crossing | Deus | Bastion | Codenames: Pictures | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – The Elite | Lords of Hellas | Unlock!: Exotic Adventures – Expedition: Challenger |
14 | Keyflower | Concordia | Sheriff of Nottingham | A Game of Thrones: The Card Game (Second Edition) | Inis | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – Doo-Arann Dungeon | Coimbra | TIME Stories Revolution: Damien 1958 NT |
15 | Mafia: Vendetta | Zombicide Season 2: Prison Outbreak | Arkwright | Metal Adventures | Pandemic: Reign of Cthulhu | Codenames: Disney – Family Edition | KeyForge: Call of the Archons | Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon |
16 | Libertalia | Ultimate Werewolf: Inquisition | Colt Express | Warhammer Quest: The Adventure Card Game | Star Wars: Destiny | Spirit Island | Crusaders: Thy Will Be Done | Cthulhu: Death May Die |
17 | The Manhattan Project | Patchistory | Castles of Mad King Ludwig | Star Wars: Armada | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Jack the Ripper & West End Adventures | 878 Vikings: Invasions of England | Narcos: The Board Game | Unlock!: Epic Adventures |
18 | Merchant of Venus (Second Edition) | Dungeon Twister: The Card Game | Sons of Anarchy: Men of Mayhem | Mission: Red Planet (Second Edition) | Agricola (Revised Edition) | The Godfather: Corleone's Empire | Gen7: A Crossroads Game | KeyForge: Age of Ascension |
19 | Seasons | Forbidden Desert | La Granja | FUSE | Falling Sky: The Gallic Revolt Against Caesar | Civilization: A New Dawn | Star Wars: Legion | Watergate |
20 | Legends of Andor | Nauticus | Gaïa | Sylvion | Bloodborne: The Card Game | Codenames: Duet | Everdell | The Magnificent |
21 | The Last Banquet | Ladies & Gentlemen | Imperial Settlers | Drakon (Fourth Edition) | Covert | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – Fifth Avenue | WARIGIN | Ragusa |
22 | Mice and Mystics | 1775: Rebellion | Camel Up | The Voyages of Marco Polo | When I Dream | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Carlton House & Queen's Park | Betrayal Legacy | Crystal Palace |
23 | The Palaces of Carrara | Legacy: The Testament of Duke de Crecy | The Witcher Adventure Game | Star Wars: X-Wing Miniatures Game – The Force Awakens Core Set | DOOM: The Board Game | Runewars Miniatures Game | Unlock!: Heroic Adventures | Pipeline |
24 | Android: Infiltration | Cappuccino | Warhammer 40,000: Conquest | Zombicide Season 3: Rue Morgue | Warriors of Japan: A Country Aflame 1335-1339 | Summit: The Board Game | Railroad Ink: Deep Blue Edition | Yukon Airways |
25 | Polis: Fight for the Hegemony | Prosperity | Abyss | Arboretum | Dead of Winter: The Long Night | Carthago: Merchants & Guilds | Concordia Venus | Pandemic: Rapid Response |
This is an interactive table for the model’s predictions for the training set (from resampling).
We’ll validate the model by looking at its predictions for games published in 2020. That is, how well did a model trained on a user’s collection through 2020 perform in predicting games for the user in 2020?
username | outcome | dataset | method | .metric | .estimate |
Phil | owned | validation | GLM | roc_auc | 0.882 |
Phil | owned | validation | Decision Tree | roc_auc | 0.791 |
Table of top 50 games from 2020, highlighting games that the user owns.
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2020 | 291457 | Gloomhaven: Jaws of the Lion | 0.438 | yes |
2020 | 300001 | Renature | 0.264 | no |
2020 | 298572 | Cosmic Encounter Duel | 0.219 | no |
2020 | 314040 | Pandemic Legacy: Season 0 | 0.209 | no |
2020 | 246900 | Eclipse: Second Dawn for the Galaxy | 0.168 | no |
2020 | 296345 | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: The Baker Street Irregulars | 0.155 | yes |
2020 | 292333 | Cowboys II: Cowboys & Indians Edition | 0.145 | no |
2020 | 271524 | TIME Stories Revolution: A Midsummer Night | 0.145 | no |
2020 | 302425 | Unlock!: Mythic Adventures | 0.145 | no |
2020 | 256317 | Guild Master | 0.145 | no |
2020 | 287742 | TIME Stories Revolution: The Hadal Project | 0.114 | no |
2020 | 312267 | Star Wars: Unlock! | 0.114 | no |
2020 | 327913 | Unlock!: Timeless Adventures – Arsène Lupin und der große weiße Diamant | 0.089 | no |
2020 | 316554 | Dune: Imperium | 0.079 | no |
2020 | 300877 | New York Zoo | 0.076 | yes |
2020 | 184267 | On Mars | 0.067 | yes |
2020 | 293889 | Fallout Shelter: The Board Game | 0.064 | no |
2020 | 301919 | Pandemic: Hot Zone – North America | 0.061 | no |
2020 | 302723 | Forgotten Waters | 0.061 | yes |
2020 | 299592 | Beez | 0.056 | no |
2020 | 294788 | Conqueror: Final Conquest | 0.056 | no |
2020 | 295905 | Cosmic Frog | 0.054 | no |
2020 | 308652 | Age of Dogfights: WW1 | 0.053 | no |
2020 | 301767 | Mysterium Park | 0.051 | no |
2020 | 304285 | Infinity Gauntlet: A Love Letter Game | 0.048 | no |
2020 | 300322 | Hallertau | 0.046 | no |
2020 | 296151 | Viscounts of the West Kingdom | 0.045 | no |
2020 | 299179 | Chancellorsville 1863 | 0.042 | no |
2020 | 297486 | Ride the Rails | 0.041 | no |
2020 | 302465 | Obsidia | 0.041 | no |
2020 | 318183 | Prehistories | 0.036 | no |
2020 | 310448 | Zombie Teenz Evolution | 0.036 | no |
2020 | 301880 | Raiders of Scythia | 0.035 | no |
2020 | 301716 | Glasgow | 0.034 | no |
2020 | 294484 | Unmatched: Cobble & Fog | 0.032 | yes |
2020 | 315060 | Unmatched: Buffy the Vampire Slayer | 0.032 | no |
2020 | 312251 | Curious Cargo | 0.032 | no |
2020 | 316858 | CloudAge | 0.032 | no |
2020 | 293296 | Splendor: Marvel | 0.031 | no |
2020 | 256940 | Krosmaster: Blast | 0.031 | no |
2020 | 282922 | Windward | 0.031 | no |
2020 | 262274 | D6: Dungeons, Dudes, Dames, Danger, Dice and Dragons! | 0.031 | no |
2020 | 286749 | Hansa Teutonica: Big Box | 0.030 | yes |
2020 | 294235 | Crime Zoom: His Last Card | 0.030 | no |
2020 | 321305 | Crime Zoom: Bird of Ill Omen | 0.030 | no |
2020 | 321306 | Crime Zoom: A Deadly Writer | 0.030 | no |
2020 | 316377 | 7 Wonders (Second Edition) | 0.028 | no |
2020 | 304420 | Bonfire | 0.026 | no |
2020 | 319966 | The King Is Dead: Second Edition | 0.026 | yes |
2020 | 306481 | Tawantinsuyu: The Inca Empire | 0.025 | no |
We can then refit our model to the training and validation set in order to predict all upcoming games for the user.
Examine the top 100 upcoming games, highlighting in blue ones the user already owns.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
1 | 2021 | 343905 | Boonlake | 0.542 | yes |
2 | 2022 | 349067 | The Lord of the Rings: The Card Game – Revised Core Set | 0.478 | no |
3 | 2022 | 331106 | The Witcher: Old World | 0.468 | no |
4 | 2021 | 339484 | Savannah Park | 0.372 | no |
5 | 2023 | 347909 | Rogue Angels: Legacy of the Burning Suns | 0.307 | no |
6 | 2021 | 340466 | Unfathomable | 0.300 | yes |
7 | 2022 | 310873 | Carnegie | 0.278 | no |
8 | 2021 | 344277 | Corrosion | 0.223 | no |
9 | 2021 | 285967 | Ankh: Gods of Egypt | 0.220 | yes |
10 | 2021 | 342942 | Ark Nova | 0.204 | no |
11 | 2021 | 291859 | Riftforce | 0.204 | yes |
12 | 2022 | 256680 | Return to Dark Tower | 0.167 | no |
13 | 2022 | 317511 | Tindaya | 0.140 | no |
14 | 2022 | 295770 | Frosthaven | 0.119 | no |
15 | 2022 | 322524 | Bardsung | 0.116 | no |
16 | 2021 | 322708 | Descent: Legends of the Dark | 0.111 | no |
17 | 2021 | 262201 | Sword & Sorcery: Ancient Chronicles | 0.092 | no |
18 | 2021 | 338980 | Eastern Empires | 0.089 | no |
19 | 2021 | 298102 | Roll Camera!: The Filmmaking Board Game | 0.085 | no |
20 | 2021 | 342848 | World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King | 0.083 | no |
21 | 2022 | 335764 | Unmatched: Battle of Legends, Volume Two | 0.076 | no |
22 | 2022 | 326933 | Unmatched: Redemption Row | 0.076 | no |
23 | 2022 | 326934 | Unmatched: Hell's Kitchen | 0.076 | no |
24 | 2021 | 338760 | Imperial Steam | 0.074 | no |
25 | 2021 | 295535 | Dark Ages: Heritage of Charlemagne | 0.071 | no |
26 | 2021 | 304985 | Dark Ages: Holy Roman Empire | 0.071 | no |
27 | 2021 | 325698 | Juicy Fruits | 0.070 | no |
28 | 2021 | 326804 | Rorschach | 0.070 | no |
29 | 2022 | 273814 | Deliverance | 0.070 | no |
30 | 2021 | 340237 | Wonder Book | 0.070 | no |
31 | 2022 | 346199 | A Game of Thrones: B'Twixt | 0.065 | no |
32 | 2022 | 341945 | La Granja: Deluxe Master Set | 0.061 | no |
33 | 2021 | 331635 | Kameloot | 0.060 | no |
34 | 2021 | 249277 | Brazil: Imperial | 0.059 | no |
35 | 2022 | 266064 | Trudvang Legends | 0.057 | no |
36 | 2023 | 349793 | Age of Rome | 0.056 | no |
37 | 2022 | 338067 | 6: Siege – The Board Game | 0.055 | no |
38 | 2021 | 291572 | Oath: Chronicles of Empire and Exile | 0.055 | no |
39 | 2022 | 315610 | Massive Darkness 2: Hellscape | 0.055 | no |
40 | 2022 | 317321 | Darkest Dungeon: The Board Game | 0.050 | no |
41 | 2021 | 336195 | League of Dungeoneers | 0.050 | no |
42 | 2022 | 283137 | Human Punishment: The Beginning | 0.049 | no |
43 | 2021 | 273330 | Bloodborne: The Board Game | 0.049 | no |
44 | 2021 | 286751 | Zombicide: 2nd Edition | 0.047 | no |
45 | 2022 | 251661 | Oathsworn: Into the Deepwood | 0.047 | no |
46 | 2021 | 325022 | Coffee Traders | 0.047 | no |
47 | 2021 | 295785 | Euthia: Torment of Resurrection | 0.045 | no |
48 | 2021 | 339906 | The Hunger | 0.045 | no |
49 | 2021 | 314491 | Meadow | 0.043 | no |
50 | 2021 | 290236 | Canvas | 0.043 | no |
51 | 2021 | 298383 | Golem | 0.043 | no |
52 | 2021 | 306202 | Philosophia: Floating World | 0.043 | no |
53 | 2021 | 347137 | Chronicles of Avel | 0.042 | no |
54 | 2021 | 299255 | Vienna Connection | 0.040 | no |
55 | 2021 | 338834 | MicroMacro: Crime City – Full House | 0.040 | no |
56 | 2021 | 319263 | One Card Dungeon | 0.038 | no |
57 | 2022 | 353470 | Star Wars: Jabba's Palace – A Love Letter Game | 0.038 | no |
58 | 2021 | 329670 | Pandemic: Hot Zone – Europe | 0.038 | no |
59 | 2022 | 325348 | Successors (Fourth Edition) | 0.036 | no |
60 | 2021 | 324957 | The Snallygaster Situation: Kids on Bikes Board Game | 0.035 | no |
61 | 2022 | 353905 | Bureau of Investigation: Investigations in Arkham & Elsewhere | 0.035 | no |
62 | 2023 | 312959 | Rallyman: DIRT | 0.033 | no |
63 | 2021 | 340909 | Gloomholdin' | 0.032 | no |
64 | 2023 | 274471 | Malhya: Lands of Legends | 0.032 | no |
65 | 2021 | 339789 | Welcome to the Moon | 0.032 | no |
66 | 2022 | 281258 | Sub Terra II: Inferno's Edge | 0.032 | no |
67 | 2022 | 319807 | Shogun no Katana | 0.032 | no |
68 | 2022 | 305096 | Endless Winter: Paleoamericans | 0.031 | no |
69 | 2021 | 301366 | Caves of Rwenzori | 0.030 | no |
70 | 2021 | 350636 | Unlock!: Game Adventures | 0.029 | no |
71 | 2021 | 331549 | MiniQuest Adventures | 0.029 | no |
72 | 2021 | 319792 | Fly-A-Way | 0.029 | no |
73 | 2021 | 334782 | Bayou Bash | 0.029 | no |
74 | 2021 | 298378 | Maharaja | 0.029 | no |
75 | 2021 | 311920 | Ultimate Werewolf: Extreme | 0.028 | no |
76 | 2022 | 324894 | Free Radicals | 0.028 | no |
77 | 2021 | 259962 | Stress Botics | 0.028 | no |
78 | 2021 | 303954 | Pax Viking | 0.028 | no |
79 | 2022 | 331398 | Mythic Battles: Ragnarök | 0.027 | no |
80 | 2022 | 300217 | Merchants of the Dark Road | 0.027 | no |
81 | 2021 | 346965 | Azul: Queen's Garden | 0.027 | no |
82 | 2022 | 308028 | Drop Drive | 0.026 | no |
83 | 2021 | 307703 | Dawn of Battle | 0.025 | no |
84 | 2021 | 315937 | X-Men: Mutant Insurrection | 0.025 | no |
85 | 2022 | 280726 | Legacies | 0.025 | no |
86 | 2022 | 340325 | Vagrantsong | 0.025 | no |
87 | 2021 | 260524 | Beyond Humanity: Colonies | 0.025 | no |
88 | 2021 | 196676 | Rome, Inc.: From Augustus to Diocletian | 0.025 | no |
89 | 2021 | 299566 | Batman: The Animated Series Adventures – Shadow of the Bat | 0.024 | no |
90 | 2021 | 313730 | Harsh Shadows | 0.024 | no |
91 | 2021 | 340834 | Gravwell: 2nd Edition | 0.024 | no |
92 | 2022 | 311988 | Frostpunk: The Board Game | 0.024 | no |
93 | 2022 | 254127 | Europa Universalis: The Price of Power | 0.023 | no |
94 | 2021 | 334012 | The Battle of Armageddon: Deluxe Edition | 0.023 | no |
95 | 2021 | 263222 | Shards of the Jaguar | 0.023 | no |
96 | 2021 | 309319 | Apogee | 0.023 | no |
97 | 2022 | 299106 | Fractal: Beyond the Void | 0.023 | no |
98 | 2022 | 342900 | Earthborne Rangers | 0.023 | no |
99 | 2021 | 341169 | Great Western Trail (Second Edition) | 0.022 | no |
100 | 2021 | 316287 | Quest | 0.022 | no |